Copyright © 2011 Li Li and Liu Chong-xin. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This paper employs chaos theory into power load forecasting. Lyapunov exponents on chaos theory are calculated to judge whether it is a chaotic system. Delay time and embedding dimension are calculated to reconstruct the phase space and determine the structure of artificial neural network (ANN). Improved back propagation (BP) algorithm based on genetic algorithm (GA) is used to train and forecast. Finally, this paper uses the load data of Shaanxi province power grid of China to complete the short-term load forecasting. The results show that the model in this paper is more effective than classical standard BP neural network model.